Category: Uncategorized

Investors worldwide are in panic mode after U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping new tariffs, intensifying fears of a full-scale trade war. In a dramatic move, Trump imposed a minimum 10% tariff on all imports to the United States, with even higher duties targeting major trade partners like China, Japan, and the European Union.

The reaction was swift and severe. U.S. stock futures plunged, with the S&P 500 down over 3%. Big tech names weren’t spared—Apple dropped nearly 7%, while Amazon, Dell, and Tesla each fell more than 4%. Apparel giants like Nike and Deckers took an even bigger hit, tumbling nearly 11% due to heavy tariffs on key manufacturing hubs like Vietnam.

The ripple effect spread across global markets. Europe’s Adidas and Puma sank nearly 10%, dragging the Stoxx 600 index down 1.5%. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei index fell almost 3%.

As fears of retaliation from China and the EU grow, investors are fleeing to safe havens. Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasuries dropped to their lowest in over five months. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc rallied, and gold prices briefly hit a new all-time high.

Justin Onuekwusi, CIO at St James’s Place, warns: “Markets haven’t fully priced in the worst-case scenario. If retaliation escalates, we could see a much deeper sell-off.”

（By Ziqi Qin)

(Ref: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-02/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates?srnd=phx-markets)

Fed officials backed another rate hike as they monitored the impact of bank stress on the economy, while new emergency lending data showed continued financial focus.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, usually one of the more hawkish policymakers, said she favours rates above 5% because inflation remains too high.
But she tempered the message, arguing that caution was needed as tighter credit conditions could dampen hiring and spending.

“We are closer to the end of the tightening journey than the beginning,” she said on Thursday. “How much further tightening is required will depend on economic and financial developments and progress on our monetary policy objectives.”

Data released after her speech showed banks increased emergency borrowing from the Fed for the first time in five weeks.

Policymakers raised borrowing costs by 25 basis points last month, raising the benchmark interest rate target to 4.75% to 5% from near zero 12 months ago.

According to the median of their forecasts, they also see another rate hike this year, to 5.1% – a move investors are betting they will take at their upcoming May 2-3 meeting.

Some Fed officials have said they want to pause at that point, although investors expect a rate cut by the end of the year.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, one of the policymakers, reiterated that message.

Asked whether he still supported a “set and forget” approach to rate hikes, he said, “That’s my view,” noting that policy works with a lag.

“Once we reach that point, we’re firmly in a restrictive space. Then I think it’s time for restrictive action. It’s going to take some time,” he said.

Prices in UK shops are rising rapidly, suggesting the cost of living crisis is far from over.

The British Retail Consortium said store price inflation accelerated to 8.9% this month, the highest for the index since 2005 and up from 8.4% in February.

According to one of the country’s most prominent online grocers, deflationary inflation is prompting shoppers to buy fewer items. Ocado Group Plc said on Tuesday morning that the average number of items purchased per customer in its partnership with Marks & Spencer Group Plc fell 7.5% in the first quarter.

Ocado shoppers shrink shopping baskets under pressure from rising costs. On a call with reporters, Ocado Retail chief executive Hannah Gibson said that cost pressures are continuing and could drive up customer prices.

UK shoppers are increasingly turning to discount grocery stores, market data shows. Lidl was the fastest-growing supermarket in the four weeks to March 19, with sales up 25.8 per cent, Kantar said on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Aldi’s market share hit another record high. The combined market share of the two German discounters is 17.3 per cent.
sticky inflation
Grocery price inflation hit another record high of 17.5%, according to data compiled by Kantar Worldpanel.

Data released overnight by the BRC showed food prices rose by 15% in March amid shortages of fruit and vegetables.

UK headline inflation unexpectedly rose in February for the first time in four months, led by food and drink prices.

According to an analysis by Retail Economics, the average British household has £76 ($94) less cash idle each month than it did a year ago.
“Store price inflation has not yet peaked,” BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said. “Food price increases are likely to moderate in the coming months, particularly as we enter the UK growing season, but broader inflation is expected to remain elevated.”

Chocolate, confectionery, and soda prices rose sharply in March due to rising sugar costs. Fruit and vegetables were also more expensive after a lack of supplies of tomatoes, cucumbers and peppers from Spain and North Africa left shelves empty. In addition, import prices rose due to a weaker pound.

Presenting News by Oscar

According to reports, the $2 trillion venture capital industry could see a 25% to 30% portfolio cut in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse — a potential $500 billion cut.

“In the wake of SVB’s collapse, we expect greater valuation scrutiny and disclosure, especially as significant ‘trust’ capital from pension funds flows into these markets,” Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Gaurav Patankar wrote in a note Friday.

Some venture capital and private equity firms are turning to strategies of “stretching” and “pretending,” meaning they hold assets or back capital to avoid real price discovery. Examples of this include NAV loans that allow the general partner to borrow from a group of portfolio companies within the fund, available partner-led secondary structures in which the fund sponsor invests in one or more of the funds it already manages, Asset sales to new funds, and alternative financing through private credit.

But these approaches can only delay but not deny the underlying problem of “flaky” and “unrealistic” risk valuations.

US consumer prices rose at the fastest pace in 40 years in February 2022, reflecting a sharp increase in energy and food prices as well as rising demand for goods and services as the economy recovers from the pandemic. This has raised concerns that inflation may be accelerating faster than anticipated, potentially leading to a sustained period of higher prices that could erode purchasing power and dampen economic growth.

The Federal Reserve has been closely monitoring inflation trends and has signaled that it may begin to raise interest rates sooner than previously anticipated in order to keep inflation under control. However, this could also lead to tighter financial conditions and potentially slower economic growth.

The inflation concerns have also led to increased volatility in financial markets, with investors closely watching economic data releases and central bank policy announcements for signs of potential shifts in inflation or monetary policy. Some sectors of the economy, such as energy and consumer goods, have been particularly affected by the rising prices, while others, such as technology and healthcare, have been relatively insulated from the effects of inflation.

Overall, the inflation concerns reflect a complex set of economic factors that are still evolving and could have significant impacts on the global economy in the coming months and years.

As the CPI is historically high, the US and other countries are starting to raise interest rates.

For example, in commercial real estate in Los Angeles, the sales volume of commercial mortgage bonds fell sharply due to rising interest rates, plummeting by about 85% year-on-year.

Adding to the pressure is a recent spate of defaults in the office and retail property sectors, making bond buyers more cautious.

This week, Bloomberg reported that Brookfield Corp., the parent company of the largest office landlord in downtown Los Angeles, has defaulted on loans related to two buildings due to falling demand for space rather than refinancing the debt.

Gold price is looking to build on the previous rally above $1,850 as bulls gather pace for the next push higher. However, the bright metal is struggling to find new demand as investors turn cautious and flock to safety in the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the US Treasury bond yields are holding near weekly lows, limiting any downside for Gold buyers. The US Dollar incurred steep losses on Wednesday as the mixed US ISM Manufacturing PMI data and US Federal Reserve (Fed) Minutes failed to impress.
Even though the Fed Minutes showed that the officials are committed to fighting inflation and expect higher interest rates to remain in place, markets continue pricing a dovish Fed pivot by the end of 2023 as recession risks amplify. Accordingly, attention now turns toward the US employment data, as it will provide further insight into the Fed’s policy path this year.

Gold Price: Key levels to watch

1. The gold price is challenging the bullish commitments at $1,854.
2. The last line of defence for Gold buyers is at the Bollinger Band one-day Upper at $1,845.
3. The next upside target is at the $1,860 round number.